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 The oil industry has always been an eruptive business, and by 2020 it will drop as the biggest bosom in the history of the industry due to the double spunk of coronavirus and the spring price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Months of reduced funding and lower investment are fast approaching the resumption of demand as the arrival of the vaccinated marker is expected to return to normal. That's the perfect solution to the current glut in the market for a shortage that can push prices high enough - more than $ 65 a barrel - for testing and manufacturing companies to start rolling back.

After 10 months of layoffs and forced mergers caused by epidemic-related extinctions, high prices will be welcome. news for producers and oil service companies and retailers relying on them, not to mention the rural communities across Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Pennsylvania. But a full return will not happen overnight, despite the uncontrollable excitement of sellers.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed the $ 50 barrel last week for the first time since February as containers of Pfizer's new vaccine began reaching hospitals.

Meanwhile, oil consumption remains under pressure as governments set new travel restrictions to reduce the spread of the virus during the holidays - a season that in any given year will be associated with a huge demand for petroleum products. There is also a reservoir of oil reserves waiting for market conditions to improve. The global oil list is always very close at about 3 billion barrels, and the expanded OPEC coalition led by Saudi Arabia and Russia has a large production capacity.

Forcing those bears to return for the winter will take time. But oil consumption has returned to traditional levels before the supply is ready to meet the next threat or opportunity, depending on your vision. The oil industry has significantly reduced investment in exploration and mining since 2015 in response to tightening financial markets and investors' demands for higher profits.

Globally, oil and gas investment is estimated at 880 billion in 2014. Investments this year are expected to be $ 383 billion, the lowest level in 15 years and 20% lower than in 2019, according to energy technology company Rystad Energy. Manufacturing and production authorities have been reluctant to make a fortune after two bites in the last five years.

That break in the board room will not go away quickly. But the market is clearly expecting the industry to return in the near future. Exploration and manufacturing companies have seen a flood of investment over the past six weeks that have increased stock prices by 50%. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects fuel demand to return to pre-epidemic levels of 100 million barrels a day within 12 to 18 months.

However, analysts at the IEA warned that if the current low investment rates continue until 2025, 9 million barrels per day of power supply will not happen. That’s probably the amount of oil on the market right now due to the epidemic-related closure. ConocoPhillips CEO Matt Fox recently told shareholders that four million barrels a day could be lost in the next few years for the same reason.

The shale sector - which has seen its output drop from more than a million barrels per day to less than seven million barrels this year - will be pressured to fill the gap alone if major financial markets are not opened and allow oil companies to invest.

All of this adds to the picture of the demand for sales available to US manufacturers in 2021 and 2022. These factors will determine the magnitude of the feed deficit. But one avoidance seems impossible.